Barclays Premier League Preview 2014-15 Part 2: My Predictions

In Part 1 of my season preview I took a closer look at the five teams who I think will challenge for the championship. In Part 2 I will predict the final table and offer my early thoughts of what may happen.

Here's the Behind The Goal predicted table for 2014-15.
(The usual caveat applies, namely the transfer window is still open, but right now, I'm happy with this order.)

1. Chelsea
2. Manchester City
3. Arsenal
4. Manchester United
5. Liverpool
6. Tottenham Hotspur
7. Everton
8. Newcastle United
9. Stoke City
10. Swansea City
11. West Ham United
12. Southampton
13. Crystal Palace
14. Sunderland
15. Queens Park Rangers
16. Hull City
17. Aston Villa
18. Leicester City
19. West Bromwich Albion
20. Burnley

 

First manager to be sacked:

Sam Allardyce of West Ham United. The fans don't particularly like him, the owners David Gold and David Sullivan aren't all that overstruck by his style of football, and their Andy Carroll-less side may struggle for goals if Enner Valencia doesn't hit the ground running as his replacement. The club's imminent move to the Olympic Stadium in a couple of years adds a ton of pressure for them to remain in the Premier League long term, and a poor start may be enough for Gold and Sullivan to pull the trigger.

I also expect Sean Dyche of Burnley and Aston Villa's Paul Lambert to be out of a job before the end of the season. For me, Roy Keane's appointment as Villa's number two looks so much like they have replaced Lambert before even getting rid of him. Think Rene Meulensteen at Fulham last year. That worked out well.

Best summer signing:
Cesc Fabregas, Chelsea.
Some may say Diego Costa; in fact I think he will be Chelsea's best player and top scorer, but Fabregas will be the most important player. He is the final cog in the wheel, and offers a wider variety of midfield options than the others.

Player of the Year:

Diego Costa, Chelsea.
Some may wonder whether Costa can score as many goals in the Premier League as in La Liga for Atletico Madrid, but for me, he is bound to. Chelsea were a top striker away from winning the title last season, but now they may just have found the final piece in the jigsaw.

Most looking forward to:

Seeing how the stars of the World Cup get on, particularly Jefferson Montero at Swansea City.

Leave a comment or Tweet me @adamgray50 with your thoughts on the new season.

Barclays Premier League Preview 2014-15 Part 1: The Title

The new Barclays Premier League season begins this weekend, and in this post I will take a look at the title contenders. 

Last season's title race was one of the most exciting for years. Liverpool looked like certainties to win their first championship for 24 years until their (well, Steven Gerrard's) late slip allowed Manchester City to take home the trophy, Manuel Pellegrini's first domestic title in a European league. Arsenal led the table for longer than anyone else, yet suffered damaging defeats to all of their title rivals. Chelsea beat both Manchester City and Liverpool home and away, but dropped points to so-called lesser opposition to end up only 3rd, and Manchester United suffered an unthinakble decline as their worst ever Premier League finish of 7th place followed. It's impossible to believe that the title will go anywhere else but to one of these five teams again, and here, I will look at their credentials.

Arsenal's Community Shield win this week over a suprisingly poor Man City side has given their supporters the right to believe that they can live with the big boys this time around. Last season's defeats against their fellow contenders weren't just notable for their frequency, but for their comprehensiveness. Chelsea, City and Liverpool scored a combined 17 goals against them in three infamous early kick-offs. Their challenge wasn't helped by a familiar problem, that of an injury list far too long for their liking. Aaron Ramsey's early season form could have brought more to the Emirates trophy cabinet than the FA Cup had he not missed almost the entire second half of the season. He, a fully fit Jack Wilshere and Mesut Ozil, as well as the big money addition of Alexis Sanchez may give them the sort of midfield dominance needed to get over the line, but once again, they may just fall agonisingly short over 38 games, especially if they don't ease the workload on Olivier Giroud with another forward signing. (Behind The Goal Prediction: 3rd)

Manchester City's title win should have come as no surprise given that on paper, they had the best squad, but even great groups take time to gel. Their poor away form in the first two months of the season could have cost them, but once they got going they didn't really look back. Their transfer activity has been relatively quiet, as their hands are tied by the Financial Fair Play regulation slapped on them by UEFA. Despite that, Pellegrini has brought in Fernando and Eliaquim Mangala both from Porto, as well as Willy Caballero, Bacary Sagna and surprisingly Frank Lampard for a bit of squad depth. Sergio Aguero and Edin Dzeko will continue to provide plenty of goals, and Stevan Jovetic will be like a new signing this year, after his debut campaign was blighted by injury and poor form. Holding on to Yaya Toure is a huge boost too, after the controversy surrounding what did or didn't happen around his birthday. Whoever finishes above them will probably win the title. (BTG Prediction: 2nd)

Manchester United and their fans expected a transitional season under David Moyes last year. But by Manchester United's standards, that still means a title challenge and maybe a Cup run. It certainly didn't mean 7th place and your Chosen One out of a job by April, but that's exactly what they got. In Louis van Gaal, they have the manager with the sort of credentials that warrants one of the biggest jobs in world football. Whereas Moyes looked delighted to be there in his opening press conference, van Gaal was telling United that they should be delighted to have him. Ander Herrera and Luke Shaw have been brought to Old Trafford, but they still look short defensively following the exits of Patrice Evra, Rio Ferdinand and captain Nemanja Vidic. At the other end of the pitch, van Gaal is the right man to inject new life into Robin van Persie, who captained his Netherlands side at the World Cup. If they can get themselves back into the Champions League, United's fans will be happy. 4th place would never have been considered success under Sir Alex Ferguson, but it will be after last year's debacle. The trouble is, they have very quickly fallen too far behind the top three to get any higher this year. (BTG Prediction: 4th)

Liverpool snatched Premier League defeat from the jaws of victory last season. Brendan Rodgers' side may have won 12 of their last 14 games, but that's no good when the other two cost you everything. The 2-0 Anfield reverse by a Chelsea team who found a way to win with resolute defending, canny counter attacking and that slip, was followed by the catastrophe that was the last quarter of an hour at Crystal Palace which led to a 3-3 draw. They let Manchester City in to take the title that looked Liverpool bound after their win against the Citizens in April. Even that 3-2 victory though illustrated the ultimate reason why it went wrong. Despite scoring for fun, they simply conceded too many sloppy goals at the other end. Dejan Lovren's arrival should help arrest that trend, but how on earth do they go about replacing Luis Suarez and his incredible haul of goals? The £75million will hopefully from their point of view be spent better than Tottenham's Gareth Bale money was, but the jury is out on whether Adam Lallana and Rickie Lambert can make the step up. Lazar Markovic should be good when fit, but Liverpool need another outlet in midfield, but if anyone can, Emre Can. Liverpool haven't turned into a bad side overnight, far from it, but despite being linked with a few, they remain a top-class striker away from getting as close as last season. even finishing in the top four should be considered progress.  (BTG Prediction: 5th)

Chelsea came only four points behind Man City last season even with the high number of dropped points against the likes of Sunderland and Norwich City. A new, improved Blues starting eleven should be far more comfortable of avoiding any such mistakes this time around. Ashley Cole and Frank Lampard have moved on, although the old guard is still represented in the form of John Terry and the returning Didier Drogba from Galatasaray. The Ivorian legend may not play as many games as he used to, but as any Chelsea fan will tell you, the higher the stakes, the more likely it is he'll score. Of course they also still have Fernando Torres, who gets more goals than people think, but the main man will no doubt be Diego Costa. The Brazilian-born Spaniard bagged 36 goals for Atletico Madrid last season, helping them to the La Liga title and very nearly the Champions League. Anywhere near that return and Chelsea will take some stopping. That's even before I mention the arrival of Cesc Fabregas. Arsenal didn't want him and Manchester United didn't think they needed him, but I bet they'll soon regret he's a Blue. The addition of Filipe Luis to what was already the league's best defence make Jose Mourinho's side my favourites. Like City, whoever finishes above them will win the title.  (BTG Prediction: 1st)

Who are your tips for the title? Tweet @adamgray50 or leave a comment.

Sky Bet Championship prediction 2014-15

The new season is back and so is Behind The Goal. It's the third season of your favourite football blog. Thank you for reading my posts last season, or if you are a new reader, welcome aboard.

The Sky Bet Football League kicks off this weekend, and as always, the race for promotion should be hotly contested. No fewer than 18 of the 24 clubs have played in the Premier League at some point, and a similar number will head into the campaign with genuine hopes of troubling at least the play-off places in the spring.

The three teams relegated last season are all in pole position to bounce straight back, with none of those sides having to make drastic changes. Fulham, Cardiff City and Norwich City will be in the mix and ought to finish in the play-off places with little fuss. All three of them will fully expect that they can bounce straight back via automatic promotion.

But of those, it is Fulham who are most proving that the parachute payments from the drop can now fund a promotion campaign rather than protect a club against further demotions, as has been the case in the past. Felix Magath's men will now be led by last season's Championship top scorer Ross McCormack, who moves to Craven Cottage for a second-tier record £11 million. He threw goals in for fun last year in an average Leeds United team, and he should continue where he left off, and my opinion, help the Cottagers bounce straight back to the Premier League in style.

Of last May's beaten play-off teams, Wigan Athletic are best placed to challenge again, although Derby County and Brighton and Hove Albion also have retained the squads needed to go close. After last season's poor start, not helped by their Europa League campaign, Wigan rallied to a top-six finish, and were unlucky not to beat Queens Park Rangers in the semi-finals. A better start, and maybe Uwe Rosler will get the Latics back this time.

As for my club, Nottingham Forest, to say this last week before the big kick-off has been a rollercoaster ride is somewhat of an understatement, and possibly worth a blog post longer than this one all by itself. In a nutshell, the controversial sales (and loans back) of Jamaal Lascelles and Karl Darlow to Newcastle United paid for the transfer fees of Michail Antonio from Sheffield Wednesday, and Britt Assombalonga from Peterborough United, the latter for a club record fee of in excess of £5 million.

Those additions, plus the recruitments of the likes of Matt Fryatt, Michael Mancienne, Lars Veldwijk and Chris Burke make us far stronger in depth than last year, when we limped home in a disappointing 11th place. Wishful thinking maybe, but a play-off place is the least I expect this season. I will play safe and not put us any higher than 6th though. I daren't predict we will finish above Derby County, although there will be very little separating both teams this time around. I'll be at the City Ground on Saturday  for Stuart Pearce's first game as manager against Blackpool; needless to say the atmosphere will be something special as a genuine club legend returns.

At the bottom, I am hardly going out on a limb in tipping Blackpool for the drop. What has been allowed to happen at Bloomfield Road is a disgrace, and the fans deserve better than to enter a league season with barely more than eleven players to play in it. Newly promoted Brentford may find the step up one too far, and can Charlton Athletic defy the odds with another late season revival? Possibly not, given their manager Jose Riga left, ironically to Blackpool, and they have a newcomer to English football in charge in the shape of Bob Peeters. Their young squad may just lack the quality to get over the line this year.

Last season I correctly called two of the relegation places, and I was right in predicting Queens Park Rangers' promotion, although I did think it would be automatic. In the interest of fairness I should also point out that I had runners-up Burnley down in 18th place before a ball had been kicked, so it's not all doom and gloom if I put your team towards the bottom.

Here is the BTG Championship table prediction:

1. Fulham

2. Wigan Athletic
3. Cardiff City
4. Norwich City
5. Derby County
6. Nottingham Forest
7. Ipswich Town
8. Blackburn Rovers
9. Brighton and Hove Albion
10. Middlesbrough
11. Reading
12. Wolverhampton Wanderers
13. AFC Bournemouth
14. Bolton Wanderers
15. Watford
16. Birmingham City
17. Leeds United
18. Rotherham United
19. Huddersfield Town
20. Sheffield Wednesday
21. Millwall
22. Charlton Athletic
23. Brentford
24. Blackpool

Where do you think your team will finish? Have I got your boys in the right place? Whether you agree or disagree leave a message or Tweet me @adamgray50

The Behind The Goal Awards: World Cup 2014

As the 2014 FIFA World Cup draws to a conclusion with the final between Germany and Argentina, and  before that the third place play-off featuring Brazil and the Netherlands, I take an early look back at the best and worst of the tournament with a World Cup edition of the BTG Awards.

Player of the Tournament:

The World Cup was all about which of the game's genuine superstars would announce to the world that they were the best. Cristiano Ronaldo flattered to decieve in a disappointing Portugal side. Neymar threatened to take it by storm before his injury ended Brazil's hopes of letting him. Lionel Messi has the chance to become an all-time legend of the game with a win in the final, but he hasn't taken Argentina there single handedly. Which leads us to the player without whom his nation would have looked far weaker, especially one already missing another world class player in Radamel Falcao. My player of the tournament scored six goals, and was only stopped in the quarter final by some rough tactics by Brazil. The winner is Colombia's James Rodriguez.

Goal of the Tournament:

'Ham-ess' also wins this award, for this...

Biggest disappointment (player):

While the game's world class players proved why they are just that by scoring goals, influencing games or producing brilliant pieces of skill, another's World Cup participation will only be remembered for a moment of madness. Uruguay's Luis Suarez's bite of Giorgio Chiellini of Italy cost his country their realistic tournament challenge and himself a four month ban from football. After a phenomenal season for Liverpool, I thought his previous misdemeanours were things of the past. All eyes will be on the striker when he returns to action, probably at Barcelona.

Biggest disappointment (team):

While few in my country expected our team to win the competition, or even reach the business end, elimination in the group stage fell far below the standard required. Granted, England were in a difficult group, and their two defeats came against teams higher than them in the FIFA rankings, but what was difficult to accept is that while Roy Hodgson's side were never outclassed, they were never clinical enough in the key areas to win those games. The final game against shock quarter finalists Costa Rica was one of the biggest non-events in the history of English football. I don't think Hodgson should pay with his job, and it looks like he won't, but we will expect far better in the next European Championship if he and this group are given two more years to gel together.

Best game:

Round of 16
Brazil 1-1 Chile (Brazil won 3-2 on penalties)

Worst game:

Group stage
Iran 0-0 Nigeria

Boob of the Tournament:

My pre-tournament prediction that the Netherlands would fail to make it past the group stage. I was very relieved that Argentina knocked them out in the semi final. I would never have lived it down if the Oranje had won it all!

World Cup 2014: My Predictions

The 2014 FIFA World Cup begins on Thursday with Brazil v Croatia. Before the action kicks off be sure to get yourselves in the mood by checking out my favourite goals of the last 20 years of World Cup football, and read my predictions for the competition.

Let me know your expectations by leaving a comment or Tweeting me @adamgray50

The final:
Brazil to beat Argentina in what will hopefully be a thriller.

How far will England get?
We will play decent, but not brilliant football in the group, before stunning Colombia in the second round. A plucky, gallant, typically English quarter final exit to Brazil will then follow.

Surprise package:
Possibly Bosnia-Herzegovina. A quarter final place in their debut World Cup isn't beyond the realms of possibility. I am really looking forward to seeing how Miralem Pjanic gets on at the top level.

Biggest disappointment:
Netherlands. Chile will beat them to the second place in Group B behind Spain. Three defeats at Euro 2012 followed by another failure in Brazil; the final of 2010 seems an awfully long time ago.

Golden Boot:
Neymar.

Most looking forward to:
Hearing the Brazilian national anthem sung before the opening game. It will be something else.

Least looking forward to:
Hearing some England fans no doubt claim the tournament has been a failure if we 'only' reach the last 16.

My Favourite World Cup Goals

I have watched football my whole life. The first time I was old enough to remember World Cup football was sadly watching England's infamous failed campaign to qualify for USA 94, the San Marino goal and all. It was immortalised by the terrific An Impossible Job documentary, which I urge you to watch if you haven't seen it. Since then, it has been slightly better for my country, but sadly not much better. Too many missed penalties, and not enough memorable moments (for the right reasons, anyway), but we keep coming back for more.

Ahead of the 2014 tournament in Brazil, I have attempted to compile my 20 favourite World Cup goals of those last 20 years. A few classics, a few forgotten pieces of brilliance, and the first goal I can remember where I was when I saw it, put away by an Irishman. Well, sort of.

These are in chronological order by tournament, but let me know what your favourite is, or maybe even work out the order from 1-20. Maybe I have missed a really obvious goal, or perhaps your favourite isn't on the list. Tweet me @adamgray50 or leave a comment if you agree or disagree with my choices.

USA 94:

Ray Houghton (Republic of Ireland v Italy)
Houghton controls a poor Italian header on the chest, before coolly chipping Gianluca Pagliuca from outside the box.

Gheorghe Hagi (Romania v Colombia)
Was it a cross, or was it a shot? Either way, the left foot effort completely bamboozled Cordoba in the Colombian goal.

Diego Maradona (Argentina v Greece)
This goal is more remembered for the celebration, but the tight ball control and excellent finish in limited space is worth remebering too, even if Maradona left the tournament in disgrace.

Daniel Amokachi (Nigeria v Greece)
The future Everton man takes it past four Greek defenders before unleashing an unstoppable shot from the edge of the box.

Saeed Al-Owairan (Saudi Arabia v Belgium)
The best goal of this World Cup from a man forever remembered in pub quizzes since. His impression of Maradona's second goal against England was just as good, if not better, than the original.

France 98:

Ronaldo (Brazil v Morocco)
The best player in the world at the time will sadly be more remembered for the mysterious events of the day of the final, but prior to that he showed why he was the top striker in the game with this finish.

Michael Owen (England v Argentina)
The 18-year-old announced himself to the world with this run from the halfway line and calm finish. One of England's greatest ever World Cup goals.

Dennis Bergkamp (Netherlands v Argentina)
Bergkamp won his country this quarter-final with possibly the finest example of how to control a 60-yard pass and stop it dead, before keeping your head to poke home. Insanely good.

Japan and South Korea 2002:

Dario Rodriguez (Uruguay v Denmark)
Uruguay's corner is only headed away as far as Garcia, who tees up Rodriguez for a spectacular volley.

Edmilson (Brazil v Costa Rica)
A fantastic acrobatic volley, made even better when you consider that Edmilson was a defender, and this was his only goal for the Selecao.

Salif Diao (Senegal v Denmark)
Diao had a game to remember. In between committing the foul for Denmark's penalty and then getting sent off late in the game, he put the finishing touch to one of the great counter attacks.

Germany 2006:

Phillip Lahm (Germany v Costa Rica)
The opening goal of the tournament. Lahm picks the ball up on the left, before cutting inside and finding the top corner with his right foot.

Torsten Frings (Germany v Costa Rica)
Frings is teed up from a free kick, before rifling one in from fully 30 yards.

Joe Cole (England v Sweden)
The ball comes to Cole, who sets himself up on the chest, and volleys it into the corner from distance.

Maxi Rodriguez (Argentina v Mexico)
In Extra Time the game is usually either decided by a mistake or a moment of pure brilliance. You decide which this is.

Esteban Cambiasso (Argentina v Serbia and Montenegro)
Quite simply one of the best team goals of all time.

South Africa 2010:

Siphiwe Tshabalala (South Africa v Mexico)
The first goal of the tournament gave the goalkeeper no chance.

Carlos Tevez (Argentina v Mexico)
Tevez takes the ball past two Mexican defenders, and before they have time to recover, it's in the net thanks to a thunderbolt.

Maicon (Brazil v North Korea)
Shades of Roberto Carlos as Maicon finds the North Korea net from close range with the outside of the foot.

Giovanni van Bronckhorst (Netherlands v Uruguay)
The best goal of the last World Cup. van Bronckhorst picks the ball up nearly 40 yards out, and for some reason thinks it's a good idea to shoot. As Alan Partridge once said, "He must have a foot like a traction engine!"

Lets hope the Brazil World Cup can provide a few more goals to treasure.

The Behind The Goal Awards 2014

What a season it has been in the Barclays Premier League. One of the closest title races for years has gone all the way to the final week of the campaign, and while it should be won by Manchester City now following Liverpool's dramatic collapse at Crystal Palace, you cannot take it for granted the way it has gone in recent weeks. At the bottom, Cardiff City have been relegated after just a single season in the top flight, along with Fulham and almost certainly Norwich City. Sunderland's upturn in form has come at exactly the right time, and Gus Poyet has got the Black Cats over the line for another year in the Premier League.

Leicester City and Burnley will join the elite next season after romping to the automatic promotion positions in the Sky Bet Championship; the latter defying this blog's prediction of an 18th-place finish. Derby County and Queens Park Rangers' play-off positions were nailed on for most of the season, but Wigan Athletic and Brighton and Hove Albion were made to sweat for theirs; the Seagulls not securing a top-six finish until stoppage time at Nottingham Forest on the last day. We await the play-offs with excitement once again.

It's also been another enjoyable year on a personal level as I have continued Behind The Goal for a second season. Once again, thank you for taking the time to read my work and supporting the page.

Here are the 2nd annual Behind The Goal Awards. If you agree or disagree with any nominations or winners, let me know either on this page or on Twitter @adamgray50.

Player Of The Year:

Nominations: Wilfried Bony, Steven Gerrard, Eden Hazard, Daniel Sturridge, Luis Suarez, Yaya Toure.

He has won the PFA and the Football Writers' awards, and now he has the hat trick. To score 30 goals in a season is not to be sniffed at, and the way in which he has rebuilt his reputation a year after the incident with Branislav Ivanovic is commendable.

The winner is Luis Suarez.

Goal Of The Season:

Nominations:

Christian Benteke (Aston Villa v Norwich at Villa Park)

Graham Dorrans (WBA v Man City at the Etihad)
Pajtim Kasami (Fulham v Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park)
Pablo Osvaldo (Southampton v Man City at St Mary’s)
Wayne Rooney (Man Utd v West Ham at Upton Park)
Tomas Rosicky (Arsenal v Tottenham at White Hart Lane)
Jonjo Shelvey (Swansea v Aston Villa at the Liberty Stadium)
Luis Suarez (1st goal, Liverpool v Norwich at Anfield)
Alexander Tettey (Norwich v Sunderland at Carrow Road)
Jack Wilshere (Arsenal v Norwich at the Emirates)

All types of goals in this list, and any could have won, but the winner is this beauty from an early season London derby.

Best signing of the season:

Nominations: Wilfried Bony,Fernandinho, Romelu Lukaku, Nemanja Matic, Jason Puncheon, Willian.

This award goes to a player whose team would have been in serious relegation trouble without his signing. To come into the Premier League and score 15 goals for a mediocre side is no mean feat, and Swansea must be praised for taking a punt on a striker from Dutch football.

The winner is Wilfried Bony.

Manager Of The Year:

Nominations: Steve Bruce, Mark Hughes, Roberto Martinez, Manuel Pellegrini, Gus Poyet, Tony Pulis, Brendan Rodgers.

It is difficult not to give the award to Brendan Rodgers, considering how close he has taken Liverpool to the title, but the winner has taken his Crystal Palace team to a scarcely believable 11th place at the time of writing. I think people forget how bad they were under their sacked former manager Ian Holloway. They looked embarrassingly out of their depth at this level, yet they now have the potential to establish themselves as a tough-to beat, mid-table outfit.

The winner is Tony Pulis.

Premier League Rookie Of The Year:

Presented to the player playing his debut season in the top flight.

Nominations: Wilfried Bony, Gerard Deulofeu, Christian Eriksen, Fernandinho, Adnan Januzaj, David Marshall.

Any player that can adapt to the speed of the English game and instantly fit in will impress me, and it is no surprise that the likes of Borussia Dortmund are reportedly interested in his services, so for the same reasons as Christian Benteke won it last year I shall award it to one of the best, if still slightly underrated strikers in the league.

The winner is Wilfried Bony.

The Jose Bosingwa Award for Flop Of The Year:

Named in honour of its first winner, whose season was so bad it deserves permanent recognition.

Nominations: Jozy Altidore, Andreas Cornelius, Marouane Fellaini, Erik Lamela, Roberto Soldado, Ricky van Wolfswinkel.

These players have either flattered to decieve (Altidore), failed to live up to a big price tag or reputation (Lamela, Soldado), sent back to their former club (Cornelius), or just been plain rubbish (van Wolfswinkel). But the winner sums up his team's dreadful season on and off the pitch. There's no way he's good enough to play for Manchester United.

The winner is Marouane Fellaini.

Boob of the Year:

Nominations:

Manchester United appointing David Moyes

Tottenham wasting the Gareth Bale money
Cardiff sacking Malky Mackay to appoint Ole Gunnar Solskjaer
Arsenal signing an injured Kim Kallstrom and not a striker in January
Andre Marriner sending off Kieran Gibbs instead of Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain against Chelsea

The winner is Manchester United appointing David Moyes. Little explanation necessary.