Sky Bet Championship prediction 2014-15

The new season is back and so is Behind The Goal. It's the third season of your favourite football blog. Thank you for reading my posts last season, or if you are a new reader, welcome aboard.

The Sky Bet Football League kicks off this weekend, and as always, the race for promotion should be hotly contested. No fewer than 18 of the 24 clubs have played in the Premier League at some point, and a similar number will head into the campaign with genuine hopes of troubling at least the play-off places in the spring.

The three teams relegated last season are all in pole position to bounce straight back, with none of those sides having to make drastic changes. Fulham, Cardiff City and Norwich City will be in the mix and ought to finish in the play-off places with little fuss. All three of them will fully expect that they can bounce straight back via automatic promotion.

But of those, it is Fulham who are most proving that the parachute payments from the drop can now fund a promotion campaign rather than protect a club against further demotions, as has been the case in the past. Felix Magath's men will now be led by last season's Championship top scorer Ross McCormack, who moves to Craven Cottage for a second-tier record £11 million. He threw goals in for fun last year in an average Leeds United team, and he should continue where he left off, and my opinion, help the Cottagers bounce straight back to the Premier League in style.

Of last May's beaten play-off teams, Wigan Athletic are best placed to challenge again, although Derby County and Brighton and Hove Albion also have retained the squads needed to go close. After last season's poor start, not helped by their Europa League campaign, Wigan rallied to a top-six finish, and were unlucky not to beat Queens Park Rangers in the semi-finals. A better start, and maybe Uwe Rosler will get the Latics back this time.

As for my club, Nottingham Forest, to say this last week before the big kick-off has been a rollercoaster ride is somewhat of an understatement, and possibly worth a blog post longer than this one all by itself. In a nutshell, the controversial sales (and loans back) of Jamaal Lascelles and Karl Darlow to Newcastle United paid for the transfer fees of Michail Antonio from Sheffield Wednesday, and Britt Assombalonga from Peterborough United, the latter for a club record fee of in excess of £5 million.

Those additions, plus the recruitments of the likes of Matt Fryatt, Michael Mancienne, Lars Veldwijk and Chris Burke make us far stronger in depth than last year, when we limped home in a disappointing 11th place. Wishful thinking maybe, but a play-off place is the least I expect this season. I will play safe and not put us any higher than 6th though. I daren't predict we will finish above Derby County, although there will be very little separating both teams this time around. I'll be at the City Ground on Saturday  for Stuart Pearce's first game as manager against Blackpool; needless to say the atmosphere will be something special as a genuine club legend returns.

At the bottom, I am hardly going out on a limb in tipping Blackpool for the drop. What has been allowed to happen at Bloomfield Road is a disgrace, and the fans deserve better than to enter a league season with barely more than eleven players to play in it. Newly promoted Brentford may find the step up one too far, and can Charlton Athletic defy the odds with another late season revival? Possibly not, given their manager Jose Riga left, ironically to Blackpool, and they have a newcomer to English football in charge in the shape of Bob Peeters. Their young squad may just lack the quality to get over the line this year.

Last season I correctly called two of the relegation places, and I was right in predicting Queens Park Rangers' promotion, although I did think it would be automatic. In the interest of fairness I should also point out that I had runners-up Burnley down in 18th place before a ball had been kicked, so it's not all doom and gloom if I put your team towards the bottom.

Here is the BTG Championship table prediction:

1. Fulham

2. Wigan Athletic
3. Cardiff City
4. Norwich City
5. Derby County
6. Nottingham Forest
7. Ipswich Town
8. Blackburn Rovers
9. Brighton and Hove Albion
10. Middlesbrough
11. Reading
12. Wolverhampton Wanderers
13. AFC Bournemouth
14. Bolton Wanderers
15. Watford
16. Birmingham City
17. Leeds United
18. Rotherham United
19. Huddersfield Town
20. Sheffield Wednesday
21. Millwall
22. Charlton Athletic
23. Brentford
24. Blackpool

Where do you think your team will finish? Have I got your boys in the right place? Whether you agree or disagree leave a message or Tweet me @adamgray50

Sky Bet Championship preview 2013-14

The football season is back and so is Behind The Goal. Thank you for your support last season and I hope you will continue to enjoy the blog, and discuss the season's talking points with me, Adam Gray.

The season kicks off this weekend with the Sky Bet Football League. The oldest league in the world is celebrating its 125th anniversary this year, and it continues to provide exciting and unpredictable football in all its three divisions. It's so unpredictable in fact, that my prediction of the final table of this season's Championship will probably prove to be far more wrong than right, but the fun's in trying, isn't it?

As obvious as it sounds, the three teams relegated from the Premier League look in pole position to bounce straight back, providing they can hold on to their bigger names. Of the three, Reading look the least likely to suffer the culture shock of relegation; they won this division two seasons ago with a near-identical squad. Queens Park Rangers may still have to offload the big earners and big time Charlies which did so badly for them last year, but those that will remain, plus the signing of Burnley's Charlie Austin, will give the Rs a great chance of success. Wigan's main stumbling block may be how they cope with the demands that the Europa League campaign will place on their side, particularly if they manage to progress to the knockout stages after Christmas. Aside from that, they have a team full of youngsters with points to prove, and in Grant Holt, a proven goalscorer at all levels.

The race for the play-offs will probably be contested at some point by every club in the league, but ultimately I think it will be the same suspects as last season that compete at the business end. As a Nottingham Forest fan, I am excited by the prospect of a genuine promotion challenge after finishing 8th last term in what was a turbulent campaign on and off the pitch. I think anything less than a play-off place will be a failure given the investment the playing squad has had, but I don't think we're quite ready to challenge for the title, although I would love to be proved wrong.

Yeovil Town stunned the nation in winning promotion from League One via the play-offs, but the Championship may prove to be a step too far for Gary Johnson's side. They were relegation candidates a year ago, so there cannot be many who think they will stay afloat at a higher level. Bournemouth, who until the last minute of last season were set to be League One champions until Doncaster snatched the title in incredible circumstances at Brentford's Griffin Park, should have enough about them to stay up, as should Rovers themselves. The possibilty of seeing One Direction's Louis Tomlinson turn out in the red and white stripes may even put a few new fans through the gate at the Keepmoat! I have tipped two other Yorkshire sides for the drop, Barnsley and Huddersfield Town.

Behind The Goal's final table prediction:

1. Reading
2. Queens Park Rangers
3. Bolton Wanderers
4. Wigan Athletic
5. Nottingham Forest
6. Watford
7.  Leicester City
8.  Brighton and Hove Albion
9.  Ipswich Town
10.  Leeds United
11.  Birmingham City
12.  Derby County
13.  Middlesbrough
14.  Blackburn Rovers
15.  Blackpool
16.  Charlton Athletic
17.  AFC Bournemouth
18.  Burnley
19.  Doncaster Rovers
20.  Millwall
21.  Sheffield Wednesday
22.  Barnsley
23.  Huddersfield Town
24. Yeovil Town

What do you think? Where will your team finish? Have I done your boys a disservice? Send me a message or Tweet me @adamgray50

TWIF 5 - McManaman madness, Rio out, Forest on the up

Sunday afternoon's game at the DW Stadium saw Wigan Athletic beat Newcastle United 2-1 to boost their hopes of Barclays Premier League survival, but the Latics' crucial victory was overshadowed by a horrendous tackle by Callum McManaman on Massadio Haidara, which left the Newcastle player in hospital. McManaman caught the Frenchman halfway up the leg and left him with suspected ligament damage. We got the usual 'he's not that type of player' defence of a man who was making his first Premier League start, but whether he is or not is irrelevant. It was quite possibly the worst foul I have ever seen in English football, and one which 99 times out of 100 would be punished by a red card and at least a three-game ban. Except this was the one time it wasn't. Referee Mark Halsey didn't even give a free kick. His view must have been blocked by the Newcastle player between himself and the incident. Lets hope that's the case, because due to our FA's outdated laws, only unseen acts can be dealt with retrospectively. Hopefully McManaman gets the punishment he deserves. As for Dave Whelan, I'm not sure what he was thinking in coming out in defence of what he called a 'fair tackle'. Speaking as someone who had his own career ended in similar fashion, he ought to have thought before he spoke, although that's something the Wigan chairman finds difficult. No doubt had the shoe been on the other foot, he would have been at the front of the queue to condemn Haidara. I have said before, and I'll say again, I would bring back diving to get rid of coward's tackles like this. It makes me so mad to see careers threatened like this, and as for the Wigan supporters who cheered McManaman off when he was substitued, grow up.

Rio Ferdinand finally got his long-awaited recall to the England squad this week, only for the Manchester United defender to pull out. Ferdinand claims that his personal medical programme means that he cannot join up with the national squad for the World Cup qualifying matches against San Marino and Montenegro. No doubt Ferdinand would have had words put in his ear by his club manager Sir Alex Ferguson, which is more than can be said for England chief Roy Hodgson. It is clear in my view that there has been little or no communication between the two managers. I'm not sure Ferdinand has pulled out due to Hodgson leaving him out of the European Championship, and I'm very sure that it has nothing to do with his situation with Ashley Cole. If he had pulled out for either of those reasons, he would have been cutting his nose off to spite his face. Ferdinand has made it clear that he wants to put the Three Lions shirt on again, and it would have been a very tough call to withdraw. I just hope that he can be considered again by Hodgson. Despite what some people think, his selection wouldn't be a backward step. He is still among the best central defenders we have got, and our squad is stronger with him than without him.

Nottingham Forest continued their excellent form under returning boss Billy Davies on Saturday with a vital 2-1 win away at fellow promotion contenders Hull City at the KC Stadium. Second-half goals from Darius Henderson and Lewis McGugan earned the Reds their sixth consecutive win in the npower Championship - one shy of the club record - and cemented Forest's position in the top six with eight games to go this season. As a fan, I have written about Forest's trials and tribulations a couple of times before on Behind The Goal, and I couldn't foresee the incredible turnaround in fortunes at the club. Since Billy Davies took over from Alex McLeish, Forest have amassed 19 points from a possible 21. Just as well they have; had they lost those six instead of won them, they would be second from bottom of the table. It just goes to show how vital Davies' appointment was. If only it had been done a few weeks earlier, and they may even be realistically challenging for automatic promotion. Forest and the play-offs have never really got on well, but we as fans would all be delighted to give them another go!

No showpiece Cup final. Good or bad?

That noise you could hear at 6.40pm on Sunday evening was the collective sigh from neutrals across the country, as Manchester City were paired with Manchester United or Chelsea in the FA Cup semi-finals. That means that either Wigan Athletic, Blackburn Rovers or Millwall will appear in this season's final. A fantastic achievement for one of those teams, but we're not going to get the showpiece game we all wanted and the competition arguably needs.

The same thing happened two years ago when Manchester United played Manchester City and Stoke City took on Bolton Wanderers in the last four. We were left with a second-rate final which in all honesty stank the place out and was overshadowed by United wrapping up the Barclays Premier League title anyway. At least it shuts up those people who think the draw is fixed by using hot and cold balls. Believe me, I have heard more than one person tell me their opinion on it!

There are previous examples of 'showpiece' finals and 'underdog' finals in recent history which came about following the two remaining favourites avoiding or not avoiding each other, and often they produce games very different from what we expect. Chelsea beat Manchester United after extra time in the first final at the new Wembley in 2007, in one of the most forgettable finals of living memory after avoiding each other in the semi-finals which also featured Blackburn - then still a Premier League side - and Watford.  The previous season's semi-final draw put Liverpool together with Chelsea when most neutrals wanted that as the final. The final we did get - Liverpool v West Ham - was one of the best FA Cup finals in many years, and arguably the best I have ever seen in my lifetime, so maybe I shouldn't be so disappointed I won't get a Manchester derby final after all!

One problem the FA now has is to determine when United and Chelsea will play their 6th round replay. Millwall face Blackburn on Wednesday following their goalless draw on Sunday, but Chelsea's Europa League tie at home to Steaua Bucharest means that it isn't a possibility for the United replay to also take place this week. Next week is the International break, and the following week sees the quarter-finals of the Europa League, a competition which Chelsea still have every chance of being involved in. This sort of fixture congestion is great evidence for those who want done with Cup replays. For me, it could have been avoided, and I don't see any problem with both teams agreeing before the tie whether or not to play extra time and penalties on the original day. A compromise I could live with in future years is to only have a replay after extra time, rather than after 90 minutes.