Sky Bet Championship prediction 2014-15

The new season is back and so is Behind The Goal. It's the third season of your favourite football blog. Thank you for reading my posts last season, or if you are a new reader, welcome aboard.

The Sky Bet Football League kicks off this weekend, and as always, the race for promotion should be hotly contested. No fewer than 18 of the 24 clubs have played in the Premier League at some point, and a similar number will head into the campaign with genuine hopes of troubling at least the play-off places in the spring.

The three teams relegated last season are all in pole position to bounce straight back, with none of those sides having to make drastic changes. Fulham, Cardiff City and Norwich City will be in the mix and ought to finish in the play-off places with little fuss. All three of them will fully expect that they can bounce straight back via automatic promotion.

But of those, it is Fulham who are most proving that the parachute payments from the drop can now fund a promotion campaign rather than protect a club against further demotions, as has been the case in the past. Felix Magath's men will now be led by last season's Championship top scorer Ross McCormack, who moves to Craven Cottage for a second-tier record £11 million. He threw goals in for fun last year in an average Leeds United team, and he should continue where he left off, and my opinion, help the Cottagers bounce straight back to the Premier League in style.

Of last May's beaten play-off teams, Wigan Athletic are best placed to challenge again, although Derby County and Brighton and Hove Albion also have retained the squads needed to go close. After last season's poor start, not helped by their Europa League campaign, Wigan rallied to a top-six finish, and were unlucky not to beat Queens Park Rangers in the semi-finals. A better start, and maybe Uwe Rosler will get the Latics back this time.

As for my club, Nottingham Forest, to say this last week before the big kick-off has been a rollercoaster ride is somewhat of an understatement, and possibly worth a blog post longer than this one all by itself. In a nutshell, the controversial sales (and loans back) of Jamaal Lascelles and Karl Darlow to Newcastle United paid for the transfer fees of Michail Antonio from Sheffield Wednesday, and Britt Assombalonga from Peterborough United, the latter for a club record fee of in excess of £5 million.

Those additions, plus the recruitments of the likes of Matt Fryatt, Michael Mancienne, Lars Veldwijk and Chris Burke make us far stronger in depth than last year, when we limped home in a disappointing 11th place. Wishful thinking maybe, but a play-off place is the least I expect this season. I will play safe and not put us any higher than 6th though. I daren't predict we will finish above Derby County, although there will be very little separating both teams this time around. I'll be at the City Ground on Saturday  for Stuart Pearce's first game as manager against Blackpool; needless to say the atmosphere will be something special as a genuine club legend returns.

At the bottom, I am hardly going out on a limb in tipping Blackpool for the drop. What has been allowed to happen at Bloomfield Road is a disgrace, and the fans deserve better than to enter a league season with barely more than eleven players to play in it. Newly promoted Brentford may find the step up one too far, and can Charlton Athletic defy the odds with another late season revival? Possibly not, given their manager Jose Riga left, ironically to Blackpool, and they have a newcomer to English football in charge in the shape of Bob Peeters. Their young squad may just lack the quality to get over the line this year.

Last season I correctly called two of the relegation places, and I was right in predicting Queens Park Rangers' promotion, although I did think it would be automatic. In the interest of fairness I should also point out that I had runners-up Burnley down in 18th place before a ball had been kicked, so it's not all doom and gloom if I put your team towards the bottom.

Here is the BTG Championship table prediction:

1. Fulham

2. Wigan Athletic
3. Cardiff City
4. Norwich City
5. Derby County
6. Nottingham Forest
7. Ipswich Town
8. Blackburn Rovers
9. Brighton and Hove Albion
10. Middlesbrough
11. Reading
12. Wolverhampton Wanderers
13. AFC Bournemouth
14. Bolton Wanderers
15. Watford
16. Birmingham City
17. Leeds United
18. Rotherham United
19. Huddersfield Town
20. Sheffield Wednesday
21. Millwall
22. Charlton Athletic
23. Brentford
24. Blackpool

Where do you think your team will finish? Have I got your boys in the right place? Whether you agree or disagree leave a message or Tweet me @adamgray50

TWIF 2.06: Champions elect; Champions League; Championship

This Week In Football, it's all about the champions. There was another story too, but you're probably sick of reading about that already!

Chelsea right to rest the starters

Chelsea's shock Barclays Premier League defeat to Sunderland this past Saturday night has virtually handed the championship on a plate to Liverpool ahead of the teams' clash at Anfield on Sunday. The game, which could have been a title decider, comes three days before Chelsea's Champions League semi final second leg against Atletico Madrid. Jose Mourinho's threat to rest his starters for the Liverpool game has been met with some criticism, but in my opinion, he would be stupid not to keep what is left of his first team fit for Europe. Even if the Blues do beat Brendan Rodgers' champions-elect at the weekend, Liverpool have to drop points somewhere else not to win the title, and Mourinho knows it. It's a shame that Chelsea feel they can't win the trophy, and that the closest title race for years has become a slight anti-climax, but what would be a bigger shame is for their Champions League challenge to fizzle out so close to the final in Lisbon having chased a prize they are unlikely to win anyway.

 Champions League round up

Mourinho has always faced criticism for his defensive approaches to big games, but is he bothered? Not a bit. Should he be? If Chelsea win on Wednesday, he'll just show you the way to the final. The goalless draw at the Vicente Calderon arguably puts the Blues in the ascendancy, but they will be desperate not to concede an away goal which would leave them needing to score two. Atletico Madrid are more than capable of scoring of course, but I do think Chelsea have enough to go through even if they fail to keep a clean sheet.
Bayern Munich's grip on the European Cup has slipped somewhat following their 1-0 defeat against Real Madrid, but Pep Guardiola will be very thankful that his charges only conceded the one goal. Despite dominating possession, they didn't do enough with the ball and failed to create enough clear-cut chances, and those they did have were wasted. Carlo Ancelotti's game plan would have been to exploit Bayern down their right hand side on the counter attack, and that is exactly how the goal from Karim Benzema came about. It wasn't until the arrival in the second half of Javi Martinez, with Philipp Lahm moving to right back, that Bayern were able to cope with Real without the ball. Despite the off-day, Bayern will still fancy their chances of going through, but if they allow Fabio Coentrao and Cristiano Ronaldo the sort of space they had at the Bernabeu, they will do well to keep another clean sheet. It's great though that we have absolutley no idea what the final will be though even now.

Champions!

Congratulations to Leicester City, who finally secured the Sky Bet Championship title this week. They have been the best team in the division by a long way, and it goes to show what can happen if a board remain patient with a manager and a young team. They have swept all before them and will deserve the milestone of 100 points should they reach it in their last two games. They couldn't beat Forest though, could they? :)

Sky Bet Championship preview 2013-14

The football season is back and so is Behind The Goal. Thank you for your support last season and I hope you will continue to enjoy the blog, and discuss the season's talking points with me, Adam Gray.

The season kicks off this weekend with the Sky Bet Football League. The oldest league in the world is celebrating its 125th anniversary this year, and it continues to provide exciting and unpredictable football in all its three divisions. It's so unpredictable in fact, that my prediction of the final table of this season's Championship will probably prove to be far more wrong than right, but the fun's in trying, isn't it?

As obvious as it sounds, the three teams relegated from the Premier League look in pole position to bounce straight back, providing they can hold on to their bigger names. Of the three, Reading look the least likely to suffer the culture shock of relegation; they won this division two seasons ago with a near-identical squad. Queens Park Rangers may still have to offload the big earners and big time Charlies which did so badly for them last year, but those that will remain, plus the signing of Burnley's Charlie Austin, will give the Rs a great chance of success. Wigan's main stumbling block may be how they cope with the demands that the Europa League campaign will place on their side, particularly if they manage to progress to the knockout stages after Christmas. Aside from that, they have a team full of youngsters with points to prove, and in Grant Holt, a proven goalscorer at all levels.

The race for the play-offs will probably be contested at some point by every club in the league, but ultimately I think it will be the same suspects as last season that compete at the business end. As a Nottingham Forest fan, I am excited by the prospect of a genuine promotion challenge after finishing 8th last term in what was a turbulent campaign on and off the pitch. I think anything less than a play-off place will be a failure given the investment the playing squad has had, but I don't think we're quite ready to challenge for the title, although I would love to be proved wrong.

Yeovil Town stunned the nation in winning promotion from League One via the play-offs, but the Championship may prove to be a step too far for Gary Johnson's side. They were relegation candidates a year ago, so there cannot be many who think they will stay afloat at a higher level. Bournemouth, who until the last minute of last season were set to be League One champions until Doncaster snatched the title in incredible circumstances at Brentford's Griffin Park, should have enough about them to stay up, as should Rovers themselves. The possibilty of seeing One Direction's Louis Tomlinson turn out in the red and white stripes may even put a few new fans through the gate at the Keepmoat! I have tipped two other Yorkshire sides for the drop, Barnsley and Huddersfield Town.

Behind The Goal's final table prediction:

1. Reading
2. Queens Park Rangers
3. Bolton Wanderers
4. Wigan Athletic
5. Nottingham Forest
6. Watford
7.  Leicester City
8.  Brighton and Hove Albion
9.  Ipswich Town
10.  Leeds United
11.  Birmingham City
12.  Derby County
13.  Middlesbrough
14.  Blackburn Rovers
15.  Blackpool
16.  Charlton Athletic
17.  AFC Bournemouth
18.  Burnley
19.  Doncaster Rovers
20.  Millwall
21.  Sheffield Wednesday
22.  Barnsley
23.  Huddersfield Town
24. Yeovil Town

What do you think? Where will your team finish? Have I done your boys a disservice? Send me a message or Tweet me @adamgray50