Barclays Premier League Preview 2013-14 Part 1: Race for the title

For the first time in many years there is a genuine three-horse race for the Barclays Premier League title, made all the more fascinating by the fact that all of the three clubs are being led by new managers. We all know what we're going to get with Jose Mourinho, as he begins his second spell in charge of Chelsea, and Manuel Pellegrini at Manchester City brings his obvious talent. The biggest job however is obviously that of David Moyes, who takes on the unenviable task of picking up where Sir Alex Ferguson left off.

Moyes has already found himself under pressure following a less than impressive set of pre-season results, and of course having to deal with the Wayne Rooney transfer saga. It sounds silly, but this past Sunday's Community Shield was close to must-win for the former Everton boss. Talk amongst the Old Trafford fans has been about a lack of new signings, but it was Robin van Persie's double at Wembley against Wigan which proved that the champions aren't too bad a team without newcomers. I feel though that without another midfielder, possibly a replacement for Rooney, and of course Sir Alex in the dugout, United may fall short of title no.21.

Few were surprised when Mourinho returned to Stamford Bridge after a turbulent couple of years at Real Madrid. If he has the same effect as his first season the last time, Chelsea are going to be very tough to beat. For me, that Blues team of 2004-05 is the best in Premier League history - and I include the Arsenal invincibles in that, for the record - but I'm not too sure the spine of this team is as strong. John Terry and Frank Lampard, loyal servants of the club and the manager, aren't the players they were, and there are doubts as to how much he fancies David Luiz and Juan Mata. The personnel at the Bridge are more used to playing with more attacking prowess than Mourinho's teams are known for. Mourinho has the same problem as a long list of predecessors in the job, which is to get the best out of Fernando Torres, who must know that time is running out unless he can finally produce a 20+ goal season.

For all the talk about Moyes, Mourinho and the other transfer sagas, Manchester City have gone about their business very quietly, amazingly quietly really. They have no doubt been the busiest of the big three in the transfer market, and not only have they added in quantity, they have added in unquestionable quality in the shape of Alvaro Negredo, Stevan Jovetic, Jesus Navas and Fernandinho. Too many of their key names underperformed last season - in fact only Pablo Zabaleta had a better season than in their championship year of 2011-12 - but if the likes of Sergio Aguero, Yaya Toure, and maybe most crucially Joe Hart, get back to their best, they are going to be a force. As well as those, Pellegrini will likely use Edin Dzeko in a more leading role, which I am excited about. For me, he is possibly the most under-rated striker in the league. I may be in the minority, but I am predicting City to win the league back from their neighbours come May.

Come back later this week for Part 2 when I look at who will be in the relegation battle.

Sky Bet Championship preview 2013-14

The football season is back and so is Behind The Goal. Thank you for your support last season and I hope you will continue to enjoy the blog, and discuss the season's talking points with me, Adam Gray.

The season kicks off this weekend with the Sky Bet Football League. The oldest league in the world is celebrating its 125th anniversary this year, and it continues to provide exciting and unpredictable football in all its three divisions. It's so unpredictable in fact, that my prediction of the final table of this season's Championship will probably prove to be far more wrong than right, but the fun's in trying, isn't it?

As obvious as it sounds, the three teams relegated from the Premier League look in pole position to bounce straight back, providing they can hold on to their bigger names. Of the three, Reading look the least likely to suffer the culture shock of relegation; they won this division two seasons ago with a near-identical squad. Queens Park Rangers may still have to offload the big earners and big time Charlies which did so badly for them last year, but those that will remain, plus the signing of Burnley's Charlie Austin, will give the Rs a great chance of success. Wigan's main stumbling block may be how they cope with the demands that the Europa League campaign will place on their side, particularly if they manage to progress to the knockout stages after Christmas. Aside from that, they have a team full of youngsters with points to prove, and in Grant Holt, a proven goalscorer at all levels.

The race for the play-offs will probably be contested at some point by every club in the league, but ultimately I think it will be the same suspects as last season that compete at the business end. As a Nottingham Forest fan, I am excited by the prospect of a genuine promotion challenge after finishing 8th last term in what was a turbulent campaign on and off the pitch. I think anything less than a play-off place will be a failure given the investment the playing squad has had, but I don't think we're quite ready to challenge for the title, although I would love to be proved wrong.

Yeovil Town stunned the nation in winning promotion from League One via the play-offs, but the Championship may prove to be a step too far for Gary Johnson's side. They were relegation candidates a year ago, so there cannot be many who think they will stay afloat at a higher level. Bournemouth, who until the last minute of last season were set to be League One champions until Doncaster snatched the title in incredible circumstances at Brentford's Griffin Park, should have enough about them to stay up, as should Rovers themselves. The possibilty of seeing One Direction's Louis Tomlinson turn out in the red and white stripes may even put a few new fans through the gate at the Keepmoat! I have tipped two other Yorkshire sides for the drop, Barnsley and Huddersfield Town.

Behind The Goal's final table prediction:

1. Reading
2. Queens Park Rangers
3. Bolton Wanderers
4. Wigan Athletic
5. Nottingham Forest
6. Watford
7.  Leicester City
8.  Brighton and Hove Albion
9.  Ipswich Town
10.  Leeds United
11.  Birmingham City
12.  Derby County
13.  Middlesbrough
14.  Blackburn Rovers
15.  Blackpool
16.  Charlton Athletic
17.  AFC Bournemouth
18.  Burnley
19.  Doncaster Rovers
20.  Millwall
21.  Sheffield Wednesday
22.  Barnsley
23.  Huddersfield Town
24. Yeovil Town

What do you think? Where will your team finish? Have I done your boys a disservice? Send me a message or Tweet me @adamgray50

The Behind The Goal Awards 2013

Another season of English football is nearly over, and what a year it has been. Manchester United won their 13th Barclays Premier League title, and 20th championship overall, in Sir Alex Ferguson's final year as Old Trafford boss. Wigan Athletic stunned Manchester City to win the FA Cup, yet were relegated just three days later, and the car crash that has been Queen's Park Rangers' season has kept us watching, sometimes through our fingers, as their campaign went from bad to worse. In the Football League, Cardiff City proved that red really is a lucky colour by romping to the Championship title, and the ups and downs went right down to the wire, nowhere more so than at Griffin Park, Brentford, where Doncaster Rovers won League One in spectacular circumstances.

It has also been the debut season of Behind The Goal. It has been enjoyable to write my thoughts and feelings of the season's big moments, and I have read your comments, some I have agreed with, some not so much, but they are all appreciated and your support means a lot.  I thought I would end the season with what I hope will become my annual BTG Awards. You may or may not agree with the winners but I would love to hear why. Send a message at the bottom of the page or Tweet me @adamgray50.

Player Of The Year
Nominations: Robin van Persie, Gareth Bale, Luis Suarez, Michu, Christian Benteke, Juan Mata.

I know Bale won the PFA awards, but for me my winner has been the difference between his team winning and losing the league title. At the start of the season there may have been doubts as to whether he was the right signing for his team, but there never was for me. The winner is Robin van Persie.

Signing Of The Season
Nominations: Robin van Persie, Michu, Christian Benteke, Eden Hazard, Dimitar Berbatov, Philipe Coutinho

For the same reasons as above, this signing practically won the league by itself, as I predicted it would in August. The winner is Robin van Persie.

Premier League Rookie Of The Year
Presented to the player playing his first season in the top flight.
Nominations: Christian Benteke, Michu, Eden Hazard, Rickie Lambert, Matthew Lowton, Morgan Schneiderlin.

No doubt all of these players have been excellent additions to the Premier League. many players struggle to adapt to the speed and the relentlessness of the English game, especially strikers, which is why the award has gone where it has. This man broke his team's single-season goals record, and has put himself in the shop window for a summer move to a bigger club potentially. The winner is Christian Benteke.

Goal Of The Season
Nominations: Matthew Lowton (Aston Villa v Stoke), Robin van Persie (Man Utd v Aston Villa), Loic Remy (QPR v Wigan), Gareth Bale (Tottenham v West Ham), Luis Suarez (Liverpool v Newcastle)

For pure technique, and the largely forgotten assist by Wayne Rooney which was one of the most accurate you will ever see, the winner is Robin van Persie's volley against Aston Villa in the game which secured United's title.

Manager Of The Year
Nominations: Andre Villas-Boas, David Moyes, Michael Laudrup, Rafael Benitez, Sam Allardyce, Sir Alex Ferguson

All of these managers have done wonders for their teams in differing circumstances, but there's only one winner I could name. This man has taken what some percieve to be a poor Manchester United team to another title. He has won everything possible, but now he has a BTG award to his name before his well-deserved retirement. The winner is Sir Alex Ferguson.

Flop Of The Year
Nominations: Jose Bosingwa, Esteban Granero, Chris Samba, Joe Allen, Scott Sinclair, Pavel Pogrebnyak

For every good signing, there are always a few bad ones. The fact that three of my nominees play for the same club sums up how wrong it is possible to get transfers. QPR's relegation is not down to just one player, but the winner of this award is the one man which sums up what went wrong at Loftus Road this season the most. So bad in fact, that I may even rename the award in his honour next year. The winner is Jose Bosingwa.

OMG! Moment Of The Year (sponsored by Joey Barton)
Nominations: Suarez's bite on Ivanovic, Brentford v Doncaster, Watford v Leicester, Ben Watson's Cup final winner, Bayern beating Barcelona 7-0 on aggregate.

I would like to think I have seen it all in football, but the winner of this award genuinely left me speechless watching Sky's Gillette Soccer Saturday coverage. For sheer unbelievablity of the situation, the winner is the last minute of Brentford v Doncaster Rovers. You all know what happened, but here it is again! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKyR4f9ylEY

TWIF 5 - McManaman madness, Rio out, Forest on the up

Sunday afternoon's game at the DW Stadium saw Wigan Athletic beat Newcastle United 2-1 to boost their hopes of Barclays Premier League survival, but the Latics' crucial victory was overshadowed by a horrendous tackle by Callum McManaman on Massadio Haidara, which left the Newcastle player in hospital. McManaman caught the Frenchman halfway up the leg and left him with suspected ligament damage. We got the usual 'he's not that type of player' defence of a man who was making his first Premier League start, but whether he is or not is irrelevant. It was quite possibly the worst foul I have ever seen in English football, and one which 99 times out of 100 would be punished by a red card and at least a three-game ban. Except this was the one time it wasn't. Referee Mark Halsey didn't even give a free kick. His view must have been blocked by the Newcastle player between himself and the incident. Lets hope that's the case, because due to our FA's outdated laws, only unseen acts can be dealt with retrospectively. Hopefully McManaman gets the punishment he deserves. As for Dave Whelan, I'm not sure what he was thinking in coming out in defence of what he called a 'fair tackle'. Speaking as someone who had his own career ended in similar fashion, he ought to have thought before he spoke, although that's something the Wigan chairman finds difficult. No doubt had the shoe been on the other foot, he would have been at the front of the queue to condemn Haidara. I have said before, and I'll say again, I would bring back diving to get rid of coward's tackles like this. It makes me so mad to see careers threatened like this, and as for the Wigan supporters who cheered McManaman off when he was substitued, grow up.

Rio Ferdinand finally got his long-awaited recall to the England squad this week, only for the Manchester United defender to pull out. Ferdinand claims that his personal medical programme means that he cannot join up with the national squad for the World Cup qualifying matches against San Marino and Montenegro. No doubt Ferdinand would have had words put in his ear by his club manager Sir Alex Ferguson, which is more than can be said for England chief Roy Hodgson. It is clear in my view that there has been little or no communication between the two managers. I'm not sure Ferdinand has pulled out due to Hodgson leaving him out of the European Championship, and I'm very sure that it has nothing to do with his situation with Ashley Cole. If he had pulled out for either of those reasons, he would have been cutting his nose off to spite his face. Ferdinand has made it clear that he wants to put the Three Lions shirt on again, and it would have been a very tough call to withdraw. I just hope that he can be considered again by Hodgson. Despite what some people think, his selection wouldn't be a backward step. He is still among the best central defenders we have got, and our squad is stronger with him than without him.

Nottingham Forest continued their excellent form under returning boss Billy Davies on Saturday with a vital 2-1 win away at fellow promotion contenders Hull City at the KC Stadium. Second-half goals from Darius Henderson and Lewis McGugan earned the Reds their sixth consecutive win in the npower Championship - one shy of the club record - and cemented Forest's position in the top six with eight games to go this season. As a fan, I have written about Forest's trials and tribulations a couple of times before on Behind The Goal, and I couldn't foresee the incredible turnaround in fortunes at the club. Since Billy Davies took over from Alex McLeish, Forest have amassed 19 points from a possible 21. Just as well they have; had they lost those six instead of won them, they would be second from bottom of the table. It just goes to show how vital Davies' appointment was. If only it had been done a few weeks earlier, and they may even be realistically challenging for automatic promotion. Forest and the play-offs have never really got on well, but we as fans would all be delighted to give them another go!

No showpiece Cup final. Good or bad?

That noise you could hear at 6.40pm on Sunday evening was the collective sigh from neutrals across the country, as Manchester City were paired with Manchester United or Chelsea in the FA Cup semi-finals. That means that either Wigan Athletic, Blackburn Rovers or Millwall will appear in this season's final. A fantastic achievement for one of those teams, but we're not going to get the showpiece game we all wanted and the competition arguably needs.

The same thing happened two years ago when Manchester United played Manchester City and Stoke City took on Bolton Wanderers in the last four. We were left with a second-rate final which in all honesty stank the place out and was overshadowed by United wrapping up the Barclays Premier League title anyway. At least it shuts up those people who think the draw is fixed by using hot and cold balls. Believe me, I have heard more than one person tell me their opinion on it!

There are previous examples of 'showpiece' finals and 'underdog' finals in recent history which came about following the two remaining favourites avoiding or not avoiding each other, and often they produce games very different from what we expect. Chelsea beat Manchester United after extra time in the first final at the new Wembley in 2007, in one of the most forgettable finals of living memory after avoiding each other in the semi-finals which also featured Blackburn - then still a Premier League side - and Watford.  The previous season's semi-final draw put Liverpool together with Chelsea when most neutrals wanted that as the final. The final we did get - Liverpool v West Ham - was one of the best FA Cup finals in many years, and arguably the best I have ever seen in my lifetime, so maybe I shouldn't be so disappointed I won't get a Manchester derby final after all!

One problem the FA now has is to determine when United and Chelsea will play their 6th round replay. Millwall face Blackburn on Wednesday following their goalless draw on Sunday, but Chelsea's Europa League tie at home to Steaua Bucharest means that it isn't a possibility for the United replay to also take place this week. Next week is the International break, and the following week sees the quarter-finals of the Europa League, a competition which Chelsea still have every chance of being involved in. This sort of fixture congestion is great evidence for those who want done with Cup replays. For me, it could have been avoided, and I don't see any problem with both teams agreeing before the tie whether or not to play extra time and penalties on the original day. A compromise I could live with in future years is to only have a replay after extra time, rather than after 90 minutes.

Two red cards and a priceless City win

Manchester City's trip to the Emirates Stadium to face Arsenal was a key test of their Barclays Premier League title credentials, and it was a game they couldn't afford to lose, given Manchester United's 2-1 win at home to Liverpool earlier in the afternoon. It was a test they passed with relative ease, running out comfortable 2-0 winners to reduce their deficit to seven points, but the key talking points of the afternoon came away from the result.

The game was changed significantly inside ten minutes with the sending off of Laurent Koscielny for his last-man foul on Edin Dzeko. While referee Mike Dean was criticised for the decision to issue a red card so early, the call was entirely correct, and for me a red card offence is the same in the 1st minute or the 91st. It wasn't Dean's fault that Koscielny was as silly as he was to commit the foul. Wojciech Szczesny produced an excellent save from Dzeko's ensuing kick to limit the punishment, but from that point Arsenal were facing damage limitation.

Speaking of correct decisions, Vincent Kompany was also right - in the letter of the law at least - to be sent off for his two footed lunge on Jack Wilshere. Kompany did play the ball, but the nature of his lunge, where both feet left the ground, and where he did make contact with Wilshere, did for me mean that Dean was right to issue his second red card of the afternoon. The problem lies in that he got the ball. Years ago it wouldn't have even been a foul, but the game has moved on. Maybe the law does protect players too much from what look like good, honest challenges, but at least it means that studs-up lunges half way up players' legs are slowly but surely being eradicated from the game. City have appealed against the decision, but in all honesty the red card is very likely to be upheld.

The travelling supporters from Manchester faced an expensive day, with the much-publicised cost of their Emirates ticket being £62. Everyone knows that City are amongst the richest clubs in the world, and of course they possess a championship-winning team worth the entrance fee alone, according to the cliche. But Arsenal - and other clubs, it must be said - have forgotten that doesn't mean that their fans are the richest, and for nearly 1000 fans, it was too much. No wonder Joleon Lescott was politley reminded to thank them after the game by none other than the assistant referee! The problem is this, however. For as long as there are fans willing to pay the hefty price, despite their protests, teams will think it's ok to charge it. Maybe more fans should vote with their feet, but football is too priceless for many to miss.

TWIF 4 - Offside or onside?; All change at Forest; Blackburn circus continues.

Boxing Day in the Premier League saw one of the more talked-about goals of recent weeks. In the game between Manchester United and Newcastle United at Old Trafford, Jonny Evans diverted Danny Simpson's cross into his own net to hand the visitors a surprise 2-1 lead. The problem was that Papiss Demba Cisse was in an offside position in the six-yard box, but didn't play the ball at any point. After much deliberation the own goal was eventually - and correctly - given. Cisse did not touch the ball so was technically not offside, yet there's the problem with the law. How can a striker inside the six-yard box be not interfering with play? He was close enough to David De Gea for the goalkeeper to worry about, and close enough to Evans for him to feel he had to take defensive action. Referee Mike Dean got it right according to the laws of the game, but the rule is surely wrong in this instance. In the six-yard box at least, offside should mean offside. That doesn't excuse Sir Alex Ferguson's behaviour though. He should know better at his age and his experience. It's no surprise he won't face any action over it; his reputation has saved him for years.

Nottingham Forest are in a decent position in the npower Championship, just a point off the play-off places, helped by a terrific 4-2 win over Leeds United on Boxing Day. There was much surprise then, that the owners, the Al Hasawi family, decided to sack manager Sean O'Driscoll just hours after the game. There had been rumours in and around Nottingham for a while that O'Driscoll was on borrowed time, and there was a suggestion that he would be out with a defeat, but to get the chop after a win was very strange timing. O'Driscoll paid the price for new chairman Fawaz Al Hasawi moving the goalposts mid-season. The start of the campaign brought talk of a three-year plan and a year of consolidation, but now it seems like it's promotion or bust. There was a collective sigh amongst the City Ground fans when his successor was named as Alex McLeish. It hardly excites the faithful on Trentside. He has a particular style of football which isn't really the Forest way, and of course there are the two most recent sackings at Birmingham City and Aston Villa which stick in the memory. To say he has to hit the ground running is an understatement if he is to win the fans over and the club's owners are to find out that the grass is greener on the other side.

Speaking of which, I assume the Blackburn Rovers hierarchy thought they would be going places after finally getting rid of Steve Kean and replacing him with Henning Berg, a former title-winner with the club as a player. Despite being hated by the fans, Kean left Ewood Park with the club in 3rd place, after a fairly respectable start to the Championship season. The Venky's group, which owns the club, had the plan for Berg to come in and steer them towards a return to the top flight. Following one win in ten games, the Norwegian is out of a job after just eight weeks in the hot seat with Rovers plummeting to 17th in the table. The fans were desperate for Kean to go for months and months; I bet there may even now be some who would have him back. Talk about 'Be careful what you wish for'!

Finally I will sign off by saying thank you for your support and for reading Behind The Goal in the first half of the season. Happy New Year, and I hope you and your club has a successful 2013.