If recent seasons are anything to go by, the relegation dogfight will be contested by many more teams than just the three that will fall. Aside from the top seven or eight teams, everybody else will breathe a sigh of relief when their team reaches the magic total of 40 points. Queens Park Rangers and Reading were cannon fodder for the whole campaign last season, but the battle to avoid 18th place was contested by the entire bottom half of the league right up until the penultimate game, when Wigan Athletic finally fell through the trapdoor. This year's could be just as exciting for the neutrals.
The easy place to start is to look at the three promoted sides. Championship winners Cardiff City look the best bet of the three to survive, having broken their transfer record three times this summer. Their best piece of business is no doubt the acquisition of Steven Caulker from Tottenham. The England defender was a surprise move for many fans who believed he could easily have had a long term future at White Hart Lane. An interesting addition is Gary Medel. £11million has brought El Pitbull to Wales from Sevilla, and providing he keeps out of the trouble he was known for in Spain, he could prove the difference in midfield. For me, the Bluebirds stay up...just.
Hull City were second in the Championship last season despite scoring just 61 goals. The bulk of their wins were by one goal, and while Steve Bruce's Tigers could get away with that last year, a lack of firepower is a real worry, especially when their forward signings are either unproven (George Boyd) or arguably not good enough (Danny Graham) for the top flight. Their success was down to a solid defence, but that will be put to the test this year, and I can't see them keeping enough clean sheets without one or two more bodies coming in.
Crystal Palace's play-off final win in May was Wilfried Zaha's last appearance for the club before his return to parent club Manchester United. He looks like he will play a prominent role in David Moyes' first team plans this season, but how Ian Holloway must wish he could get him back on loan for another year. They were far from a one-man team - in fact Glenn Murray was arguably even more important last season, but his injury means that they look a weaker team without their goals and assists. In Marouane Chamakh the Eagles have signed a striker whose time at Arsenal can best be described as poor, and Dwight Gayle, a record signing, while clearly knowing where the goal is judging by his season at Peterborough United, may find the step up too big. Gayle was playing in the Conference North just a couple of years ago.
If one promoted club are to survive, then it means that an established Premier League side are to go down. There are serious doubts about how Newcastle United and Sunderland will get on after a very turbulent off-season off the pitch at St. James' Park, and a raft of changes to the playing staff at the Stadium of Light. It could be feast or famine for both North East giants, and while some have tipped one, or even both to find themselves in the bottom three, I think they will both be fine, albeit with little improvement to their finishes of 2013. Aston Villa's youngsters will be better for their experience in what was a difficult year last season, and BTG Rookie of the Year Christian Benteke's decision to stay is a huge boost to their hopes.
That leaves Stoke City. You may scoff, and I'll admit, I had to convince myself a bit, but this could well be the year that the Potters' Premier League stay comes to an end. Tony Pulis built his success on hardworking, solid defensive teams, and while people thought time was up for him, to replace him with Mark Hughes is a huge risk. Hughes prefers attacking, expansive football, not to mention a big chequebook. Stoke arguably don't have either, and it could finally be the year they get found out. Hughes needs this job to be a success after the debacle at QPR, but he's got his work cut out.
Here's BTG's predicted Barclays Premier League table:
- Manchester City
- Chelsea
- Manchester United
- Tottenham Hotspur
- Arsenal
- Liverpool
- Everton
- Swansea City
- West Ham United
- West Bromwich Albion
- Fulham
- Southampton
- Aston Villa
- Sunderland
- Newcastle United
- Norwich City
- Cardiff City
- Stoke City
- Hull City
- Crystal Palace
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