Sky Bet Championship prediction 2014-15

The new season is back and so is Behind The Goal. It's the third season of your favourite football blog. Thank you for reading my posts last season, or if you are a new reader, welcome aboard.

The Sky Bet Football League kicks off this weekend, and as always, the race for promotion should be hotly contested. No fewer than 18 of the 24 clubs have played in the Premier League at some point, and a similar number will head into the campaign with genuine hopes of troubling at least the play-off places in the spring.

The three teams relegated last season are all in pole position to bounce straight back, with none of those sides having to make drastic changes. Fulham, Cardiff City and Norwich City will be in the mix and ought to finish in the play-off places with little fuss. All three of them will fully expect that they can bounce straight back via automatic promotion.

But of those, it is Fulham who are most proving that the parachute payments from the drop can now fund a promotion campaign rather than protect a club against further demotions, as has been the case in the past. Felix Magath's men will now be led by last season's Championship top scorer Ross McCormack, who moves to Craven Cottage for a second-tier record £11 million. He threw goals in for fun last year in an average Leeds United team, and he should continue where he left off, and my opinion, help the Cottagers bounce straight back to the Premier League in style.

Of last May's beaten play-off teams, Wigan Athletic are best placed to challenge again, although Derby County and Brighton and Hove Albion also have retained the squads needed to go close. After last season's poor start, not helped by their Europa League campaign, Wigan rallied to a top-six finish, and were unlucky not to beat Queens Park Rangers in the semi-finals. A better start, and maybe Uwe Rosler will get the Latics back this time.

As for my club, Nottingham Forest, to say this last week before the big kick-off has been a rollercoaster ride is somewhat of an understatement, and possibly worth a blog post longer than this one all by itself. In a nutshell, the controversial sales (and loans back) of Jamaal Lascelles and Karl Darlow to Newcastle United paid for the transfer fees of Michail Antonio from Sheffield Wednesday, and Britt Assombalonga from Peterborough United, the latter for a club record fee of in excess of £5 million.

Those additions, plus the recruitments of the likes of Matt Fryatt, Michael Mancienne, Lars Veldwijk and Chris Burke make us far stronger in depth than last year, when we limped home in a disappointing 11th place. Wishful thinking maybe, but a play-off place is the least I expect this season. I will play safe and not put us any higher than 6th though. I daren't predict we will finish above Derby County, although there will be very little separating both teams this time around. I'll be at the City Ground on Saturday  for Stuart Pearce's first game as manager against Blackpool; needless to say the atmosphere will be something special as a genuine club legend returns.

At the bottom, I am hardly going out on a limb in tipping Blackpool for the drop. What has been allowed to happen at Bloomfield Road is a disgrace, and the fans deserve better than to enter a league season with barely more than eleven players to play in it. Newly promoted Brentford may find the step up one too far, and can Charlton Athletic defy the odds with another late season revival? Possibly not, given their manager Jose Riga left, ironically to Blackpool, and they have a newcomer to English football in charge in the shape of Bob Peeters. Their young squad may just lack the quality to get over the line this year.

Last season I correctly called two of the relegation places, and I was right in predicting Queens Park Rangers' promotion, although I did think it would be automatic. In the interest of fairness I should also point out that I had runners-up Burnley down in 18th place before a ball had been kicked, so it's not all doom and gloom if I put your team towards the bottom.

Here is the BTG Championship table prediction:

1. Fulham

2. Wigan Athletic
3. Cardiff City
4. Norwich City
5. Derby County
6. Nottingham Forest
7. Ipswich Town
8. Blackburn Rovers
9. Brighton and Hove Albion
10. Middlesbrough
11. Reading
12. Wolverhampton Wanderers
13. AFC Bournemouth
14. Bolton Wanderers
15. Watford
16. Birmingham City
17. Leeds United
18. Rotherham United
19. Huddersfield Town
20. Sheffield Wednesday
21. Millwall
22. Charlton Athletic
23. Brentford
24. Blackpool

Where do you think your team will finish? Have I got your boys in the right place? Whether you agree or disagree leave a message or Tweet me @adamgray50

Two cup finals in the Premier League

This weekend sees the semi-finals of the FA Cup with Budweiser. Arsenal face holders Wigan Athletic and Hull City play Sheffield United, but in the Barclays Premier League, there are two cup finals too. One will probably decide a relegation place; the other will almost certainly hand the league title to the winners.

Norwich City travel to Craven Cottage on Saturday to play Fulham with the losers facing a near-impossible task to avoid going down, almost certainly alongside Cardiff City and Sunderland, who look doomed already. With five games to go, the Canaries hit the panic button and parted company with boss Chris Hughton. Despite being five points clear of Fulham, who occupy the third relegation place, the board have acted now, given the team's last four games are against Liverpool, Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal. It is not inconceivable that Norwich will lose all four. Defeat at the Cottage will leave Fulham two points behind Norwich, and assuming that Norwich do lose all four against the league's big guns, Felix Magath's charges will only need one more win from fixtures against Tottenham, Hull City, Stoke City and Crystal Palace to move above the side from Carrow Road. Magath has a proven track record for pulling teams out of trouble, and no doubt will smell blood coming from a Canaries team who look short of confidence, are out of form and who have just appointed a manager - Neil Adams - with no Premier League experience. Norwich went to Craven Cottage on the final day in 2005 needing a win to stay up. They lost 6-0 and were relegated. The omens are not good, and I think Fulham will add to their growing belief with another win to follow up their success at Villa Park last week.

On Sunday afternoon Liverpool play host to Manchester City in what looks for all the world like a title decider. The Reds are on a run of nine consecutive victories, and five more will earn them their first ever Premier League title, and their 19th in English top flight football. Standing in their way is a City side who have stuttered of late, just weeks after seemingly beginning to run away with the league. Despite this, Manuel Pellegrini still has the bookies' favourites in a strong position; as well as Liverpool, they also know that maximum points from their remaining matches will win them their second championship in three years. Brendan Rodgers has already ramped up the pressure, claiming that the visitors will go into Sunday lunchtime's game as favourites. The Kop boss has said all along that Liverpool aren't in this title race. He may as well keep saying it, because it isn't doing his players much harm at the moment. The timing feels right for the home side to take the bull by the horns and go and win this title. This weekend marks the 25th anniversary of the Hillsborough disaster, and Anfield will be an emotional setting for a game which will kick off seven minutes late as part of the league-wide commemorations of the tragedy. What better way to remember the 96 who lost their lives that day than to win the one piece of silverware that has eluded them since 1990. Mind you, Manchester City will have something to say about that. Who do I think will win the game? I don't know, but I'll have a lot of fun finding out!